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Burton Albion vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Burton Albion
Burton Albion
Preview
15:00
Oxford United
Oxford United
2/20/2027League OneLeague One · Round 32Pirelli Stadium
Big match
37%
Burton Albion
model favours
37%26%37%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Burton Albion37%
×Draw26%
Oxford United37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burton Albion
1.34
Oxford United
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 177 home / 135 away

creates per match

Burton Albion
1.29
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Burton Albion
1.30
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw
63%
Burton Albion or Oxford United
74%
Draw or Oxford United
63%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+
17%
Oxford United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals
74%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
39%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
15%
Oxford United 1+ goals
74%
Oxford United 2+ goals
38%
Oxford United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)
50%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burton Albion scores more
37%
level
26%
Oxford United scores more
37%

Burton Albion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oxford United have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
Oxford United
Balanced
43%Possession50%
65%Pass accuracy74%
9.9ShotsBiggest gap12.0
1.29xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Burton AlbionOxford United

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Burton Albion
1
Draws
7
Oxford United
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 50%
0–40–32–01–21–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albion
LLDDD
United
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion face Oxford United (League One)

League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Oxford United. Match starts February 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burton Albion host Oxford United at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.