Burton Albion vs Mansfield Town

Burton Albion

Preview

11:30

Mansfield Town

9/19/2026

League One · Round 7Pirelli Stadium

Big match

44%

Burton Albion

model favours

44%28%28%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

61%

under 2.5 goals

45%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion44%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.96

Burton Albion

1.28

Mansfield Town

0.96

Burton Albion creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.28

creates per match

0.98

0.95

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Mansfield Town

0.98

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Mansfield Town

1.28

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

72%

Burton Albion or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

56%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

20%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

72%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

37%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

62%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

25%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

61%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burton Albion scores more

44%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

28%

Burton Albion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Burton Albion

Direct / counter-attacking

Mansfield Town

Balanced

43%Possession48%

65%Pass accuracy71%

9.9ShotsBiggest gap11.8

1.29xG1.37

Burton AlbionMansfield Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Burton Albion

4

Draws

1

Mansfield Town

Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 70%

0–02–11–13–32–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Albion

LLDDD

Town

LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff