Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient

Burton Albion

Preview

14:00

Leyton Orient

10/24/2026

League One · Round 13Pirelli Stadium

Big match

50%

Burton Albion

model favours

50%26%25%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Burton Albion50%

×Draw26%

Leyton Orient25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

Burton Albion

1.54

Leyton Orient

1.00

Burton Albion creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

1.28

creates per match

1.05

0.95

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.28

Leyton Orient

1.05

allows per match

Burton Albion

0.95

Leyton Orient

1.81

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Burton Albion+0.01on par

Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

75%

Burton Albion or Leyton Orient

74%

Draw or Leyton Orient

50%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

26%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

79%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

45%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

20%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

63%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

26%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

67%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.28 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Burton Albion defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Burton Albion scores more

50%

level

26%

Leyton Orient scores more

25%

Burton Albion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Burton Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Burton Albion

Direct / counter-attacking

Leyton Orient

Balanced

43%PossessionBiggest gap53%

64%Pass accuracy71%

10.2Shots11.3

1.31xG1.12

Burton AlbionLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2

Burton Albion

3

Draws

1

Leyton Orient

Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%

2–20–42–10–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Albion

LLDDD

Orient

LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burton Albion face Leyton Orient (League One)

League One returns with Burton Albion hosting Leyton Orient. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Burton Albion host Leyton Orient at Pirelli Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head-to-head

Head to Head

Burton Albion face Leyton Orient (League One)