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Bursaspor vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Bursaspor
Bursaspor
Preview
16:00
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
9/13/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 7Timsah Park
41%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
34%25%41%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bursaspor34%
×Draw25%
Esenler Erokspor41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bursaspor
1.30
Esenler Erokspor
1.45

Esenler Erokspor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bursaspor
1.42
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Bursaspor
1.19
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw
59%
Bursaspor or Esenler Erokspor
75%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
66%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+
15%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals
73%
Bursaspor 2+ goals
37%
Bursaspor 3+ goals
14%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
77%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
42%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)
45%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 1.42 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Bursaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bursaspor scores more
34%
level
25%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
41%

Esenler Erokspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bursaspor
WDWLL
Erokspor
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bursaspor face Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Bursaspor hosting Esenler Erokspor. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bursaspor host Esenler Erokspor at Timsah Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.