Bursaspor 2–1 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Bursaspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Adana Demirspor

Y. Seleznyov 37' (pen)

Abdou Razak Traoré 11'

Mehmet Akyüz 69'

2/16/2020

1. Lig · Round 22Bursa Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bursaspor51%

×Draw23%

Adana Demirspor25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BursasporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.19

Bursaspor

1.79

Adana Demirspor

1.19

Bursaspor creates 50% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

1.19

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Bursaspor

1.42

Adana Demirspor

1.20

allows per match

Bursaspor

1.19

Adana Demirspor

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bursaspor+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bursaspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bursaspor or draw

75%

Bursaspor or Adana Demirspor

77%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

49%

Winning margin

Bursaspor wins by 2+

28%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bursaspor 1+ goals

83%

Bursaspor 2+ goals

53%

Bursaspor 3+ goals

26%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

70%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

33%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bursaspor (draw refunded)

67%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bursaspor at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.19 · 53 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.16 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bursaspor attack 1.42 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.79

Adana Demirspor attack 1.20 + Bursaspor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bursaspor scores more

51%

level

23%

Adana Demirspor scores more

25%

Bursaspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bursaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

14'

22'

26'

36'

36'

37'

Y. SeleznyovPenalty

45'

Adil Demirbağ

46'

Mehmet Akyüz← P. Dibba

56'

58'

64'

64'

69'

73'

J. Kosecki← E. Zengin

74'

Okan Alkan

75'

A. Akgün← S. Özkan

79'

K. Kanatsızkuş← Y. Seleznyov

90'

Anil Karaer

90'

Shehu Abdullahi

90+3'

R. Aydın← Abdou Razak Traoré

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BursasporAdana

Overview

55%Possession45%

4Total Shots4

0Corners5

26Fouls25

Shots

4Total Shots4

3On Target2

1Off Target2

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

26Fouls25

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

6Offsides0