Adana Demirspor 4–1 Bursaspor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bursaspor

M. Akyuz 90+8'

B. Yildiz 88'

J. K. Rassoul 77'

E. Zengin 54' (pen)

S. Ozkan 90+13' (pen)

7/26/2020

1. Lig · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Adana Demirspor40%

×Draw23%

Bursaspor37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchBursaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.68

Adana Demirspor

1.75

Bursaspor

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

1.74

creates per match

1.40

1.96

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

1.74

Bursaspor

1.40

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.96

Bursaspor

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Bursaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Bursaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

63%

Adana Demirspor or Bursaspor

77%

Draw or Bursaspor

60%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

21%

Bursaspor wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

83%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

52%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

25%

Bursaspor 1+ goals

81%

Bursaspor 2+ goals

50%

Bursaspor 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

52%

Bursaspor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.96 · 69 matches

Bursaspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Bursaspor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.75

Bursaspor attack 1.40 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

40%

level

23%

Bursaspor scores more

37%

Adana Demirspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

85

Erkan Zengin

Adana Demirspor · M

9.2

Match Events

54'

E. ZenginPenalty

74'

T. Camdal← A. Demirbag

77'

V. Sen← B. Yildiz

77'

P. Dibba← M. Akyuz

77'

J. K. Rassoul↳ B. Yildiz

80'

B. Altiparmak← Y. Seleznov

80'

87'

88'

90+3'

90+8'

90+12'

Y. Seleznov← A. Akman

90+13'

S. OzkanPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdanaBursaspor

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots11

3Corners6

14Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots11

8On Target7

3Off Target3

1Blocked1

4Inside Box9

8Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

412Total Passes287

344Accurate Passes221

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

0Yellow Cards1