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Burreli vs AF Elbasani — 1st Division 2019

Burreli
Burreli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
1/29/20241st Division1st Division · Round 18Stadiumi Liri Ballabani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Burreli32%
×Draw28%
AF Elbasani40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burreli
1.09
AF Elbasani
1.24

AF Elbasani creates 14% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 16 away

creates per match

Burreli
1.13
AF Elbasani
1.88

allows per match

Burreli
0.61
AF Elbasani
1.06

finishing

Burreli+0.00on par
AF Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burreli ↓

AF Elbasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burreli or draw
60%
Burreli or AF Elbasani
72%
Draw or AF Elbasani
68%

Winning margin

Burreli wins by 2+
13%
AF Elbasani wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Burreli 1+ goals
66%
Burreli 2+ goals
30%
Burreli 3+ goals
10%
AF Elbasani 1+ goals
71%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
35%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Burreli (draw refunded)
45%
AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burreli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.61 · 104 matches

AF Elbasani away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burreli attack 1.13 + AF Elbasani defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

AF Elbasani attack 1.88 + Burreli defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burreli scores more
32%
level
28%
AF Elbasani scores more
40%

AF Elbasani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burreli vs AF Elbasani

AF Elbasani beat Burreli 1-0 in 1st Division on January 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Liri Ballabani in Burreli.