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AF Elbasani vs Burreli — 1st Division 2019

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Burreli
Burreli
10/8/20231st Division1st Division · Round 7Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

AF Elbasani65%
×Draw20%
Burreli15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AF Elbasani
2.08
Burreli
0.87

AF Elbasani creates 139% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

AF Elbasani
2.71
Burreli
0.86

allows per match

AF Elbasani
0.88
Burreli
1.44

finishing

AF Elbasani+0.00on par
Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AF Elbasani ↓

Burreli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AF Elbasani or draw
85%
AF Elbasani or Burreli
80%
Draw or Burreli
35%

Winning margin

AF Elbasani wins by 2+
41%
Burreli wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AF Elbasani 1+ goals
87%
AF Elbasani 2+ goals
61%
AF Elbasani 3+ goals
34%
Burreli 1+ goals
58%
Burreli 2+ goals
22%
Burreli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AF Elbasani (draw refunded)
82%
Burreli (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AF Elbasani at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AF Elbasani attack 2.71 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.08

Burreli attack 0.86 + AF Elbasani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

AF Elbasani scores more
65%
level
20%
Burreli scores more
15%

AF Elbasani at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "AF Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AF Elbasani vs Burreli

AF Elbasani beat Burreli 2-0 in 1st Division on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.