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Burnley vs West Ham — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
15:00
West Ham
West Ham
8/16/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Turf Moor
Big match
59%
Burnley
model favours
59%27%14%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
33%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Burnley59%
×Draw27%
West Ham14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.46
West Ham
0.57

Burnley creates 156% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.93
West Ham
0.67

allows per match

Burnley
0.47
West Ham
1.00

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
86%
Burnley or West Ham
73%
Draw or West Ham
41%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
31%
West Ham wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
77%
Burnley 2+ goals
43%
Burnley 3+ goals
18%
West Ham 1+ goals
43%
West Ham 2+ goals
11%
West Ham 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
80%
West Ham (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

West Ham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.93 + West Ham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

West Ham attack 0.67 + Burnley defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Burnley scores more
59%
level
27%
West Ham scores more
14%

Burnley at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, West Ham win only 44%
  • West Ham win just 23% of their away games
  • 23% of West Ham’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 32% of West Ham’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Ham
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burnley vs West Ham — Match Preview

Burnley face West Ham on August 16, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burnley host West Ham at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.