Burnley 3–0 West Ham: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

West Ham

Roberto Jiménez 54' (OG)

C. Wood 44'

A. Barnes 11'

11/9/2019

Premier League · Round 12Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley37%

×Draw25%

West Ham38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWest Ham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.47

Burnley

1.43

West Ham

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 35 away

1.00

creates per match

1.06

1.87

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

West Ham

1.06

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

West Ham

1.85

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

West Ham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

62%

Burnley or West Ham

75%

Draw or West Ham

63%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

17%

West Ham wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

76%

Burnley 2+ goals

42%

Burnley 3+ goals

17%

West Ham 1+ goals

77%

West Ham 2+ goals

43%

West Ham 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

49%

West Ham (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

West Ham attack 1.06 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Burnley scores more

37%

level

25%

West Ham scores more

38%

West Ham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Roberto Jiménez

West Ham · G

8.6

Match Events

11'

A. Barnes↳ J. Tarkowski

20'

A. Yarmolenko← M. Noble

44'

C. Wood↳ D. McNeil

45'

Ben Mee

54'

Roberto JiménezOwn goal

56'

M. Lanzini← Felipe Anderson

64'

A. Ajeti← Pablo Fornals

69'

Ryan Fredericks

81'

J. Rodriguez← A. Barnes

88'

Ashley Westwood

90+4'

R. Brady← C. Wood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWest

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots7

11Corners4

17Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots7

12On Target4

1Off Target2

1Blocked1

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

299Total Passes459

208Accurate Passes348

70%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves10

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

7Offsides1