Burnley 1–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Brom

Z. Flemming 23'

J. Swift 20'

3/11/2025

Championship · Round 37Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Burnley42%

×Draw30%

West Brom28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.90

Burnley

1.17

West Brom

0.90

Burnley creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 35 away

1.19

creates per match

1.16

0.64

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Burnley

1.19

West Brom

1.16

allows per match

Burnley

0.64

West Brom

1.15

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.31scores more

West Brom-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

72%

Burnley or West Brom

70%

Draw or West Brom

58%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

18%

West Brom wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

69%

Burnley 2+ goals

33%

Burnley 3+ goals

11%

West Brom 1+ goals

59%

West Brom 2+ goals

23%

West Brom 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

60%

West Brom (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.64 · 12 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.15 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.19 + West Brom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

West Brom attack 1.16 + Burnley defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more

42%

level

30%

West Brom scores more

28%

Burnley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Swift

West Brom · M

7.6

Match Events

20'

J. Swift

23'

Z. Flemming

38'

Isaac Price

63'

L. Foster← Z. Flemming

74'

W. Lankshear← A. Armstrong

74'

M. Johnston← G. Diangana

75'

J. Laurent← H. Mejbri

87'

L. Koleosho← M. Edwards

87'

A. Barnes← L. Foster

87'

J. Sarmiento← J. Anthony

90+8'

CJ Egan-Riley

90+8'

Will Lankshear

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWest

Overview

60%Possession40%

8Total Shots7

1.43Expected Goals (xG)0.58

6Corners2

10Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots7

2On Target3

4Off Target2

2Blocked2

7Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

499Total Passes327

419Accurate Passes262

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.17Goals Prevented0.17

Discipline

10Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2