Burnley 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

S. Twine 87'

N. Tella 75'

D. Furlong 7'

1/20/2023

Championship · Round 28Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Burnley42%

×Draw30%

West Brom28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.91

Burnley

1.18

West Brom

0.91

Burnley creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 36 away

1.19

creates per match

1.17

0.64

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Burnley

1.19

West Brom

1.17

allows per match

Burnley

0.64

West Brom

1.17

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.31scores more

West Brom-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

72%

Burnley or West Brom

70%

Draw or West Brom

58%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

18%

West Brom wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

69%

Burnley 2+ goals

33%

Burnley 3+ goals

12%

West Brom 1+ goals

60%

West Brom 2+ goals

23%

West Brom 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

60%

West Brom (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.64 · 12 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.19 + West Brom defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

West Brom attack 1.17 + Burnley defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Burnley scores more

42%

level

30%

West Brom scores more

28%

Burnley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Zaroury

Burnley · F

7.6

Match Events

7'

D. Furlong↳ J. Swift

42'

Darnell Furlong

63'

J. Rodríguez← A. Barnes

63'

B. Manuel← S. Bastien

67'

T. Rogić← J. Swift

75'

N. Tella↳ A. Zaroury

83'

S. Twine← N. Tella

83'

A. Reach← G. Diangana

87'

S. Twine

89'

Vitinho← B. Manuel

89'

K. Ahearne-Grant← J. Molumby

90+5'

Ian Maatsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWest

Overview

69%Possession31%

17Total Shots8

16Corners5

7Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots8

2On Target2

5Off Target1

10Blocked5

11Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

612Total Passes280

536Accurate Passes188

88%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0