Burnley 2–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

M. Keane 50'

J. Hendrick 38'

9/26/2016

Premier League · Round 6Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Burnley43%

×Draw26%

Watford30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.14

Burnley

1.42

Watford

1.14

Burnley creates 25% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 112 away

1.04

creates per match

0.96

1.31

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Burnley

1.04

Watford

0.96

allows per match

Burnley

1.31

Watford

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

70%

Burnley or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

21%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

76%

Burnley 2+ goals

41%

Burnley 3+ goals

17%

Watford 1+ goals

68%

Watford 2+ goals

32%

Watford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

59%

Watford (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 157 matches

Watford away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.79 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.04 + Watford defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Watford attack 0.96 + Burnley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burnley scores more

43%

level

26%

Watford scores more

30%

Burnley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

S. Defour

Burnley · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

Roberto Pereyra

37'

José Holebas

38'

J. Hendrick↳ S. Defour

45'

Matthew Lowton

46'

C. Zúñiga← C. Cathcart

50'

M. Keane↳ S. Defour

58'

I. Success← N. Amrabat

65'

Isaac Success

75'

Kenedy← R. Pereyra

83'

S. Arfield← S. Defour

90+3'

M. Kightly← J. Guðmundsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWatford

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots12

7Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target2

3Off Target4

6Blocked6

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

349Total Passes469

241Accurate Passes348

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0