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Burnley vs Swansea — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
15:00
Swansea
Swansea
2/13/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 31Turf Moor
Big match
63%
Burnley
model favours
63%23%14%

Swansea have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Burnley63%
×Draw23%
Swansea14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.75
Swansea
0.69

Burnley creates 154% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 39 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.92
Swansea
0.90

allows per match

Burnley
0.48
Swansea
1.59

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
86%
Burnley or Swansea
77%
Draw or Swansea
37%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
36%
Swansea wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
83%
Burnley 2+ goals
52%
Burnley 3+ goals
25%
Swansea 1+ goals
50%
Swansea 2+ goals
15%
Swansea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
81%
Swansea (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.48 · 25 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.92 + Swansea defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.75

Swansea attack 0.90 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Burnley scores more
63%
level
23%
Swansea scores more
14%

Burnley at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%
  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches
  • Swansea have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Swansea win just 20% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Swansea
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Burnley host Swansea

February 13, 2027: Burnley take on Swansea in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Burnley host Swansea at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.