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Burnley vs Southampton — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
14:00
Southampton
Southampton
4/24/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 45Turf Moor
Big match
53%
Burnley
model favours
53%23%23%

Southampton score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burnley53%
×Draw23%
Southampton23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.77
Southampton
1.09

Burnley creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.94
Southampton
1.71

allows per match

Burnley
0.47
Southampton
1.61

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
77%
Burnley or Southampton
77%
Draw or Southampton
47%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
30%
Southampton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
83%
Burnley 2+ goals
53%
Burnley 3+ goals
26%
Southampton 1+ goals
66%
Southampton 2+ goals
30%
Southampton 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
69%
Southampton (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.94 + Southampton defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.77

Southampton attack 1.71 + Burnley defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Burnley scores more
53%
level
23%
Southampton scores more
23%

Burnley at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%
  • Southampton have scored in 12 games running
  • 81% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Southampton
DDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Burnley host Southampton

April 24, 2027: Burnley take on Southampton in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Burnley host Southampton at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.