Burnley 1–0 Southampton: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Southampton

J. Barton 78'

1/14/2017

Premier League · Round 21Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Burnley40%

×Draw25%

Southampton36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.41

Burnley

1.50

Southampton

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

1.87

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Southampton

0.95

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Southampton

1.99

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Southampton-0.06on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

64%

Burnley or Southampton

75%

Draw or Southampton

60%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

19%

Southampton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

78%

Burnley 2+ goals

44%

Burnley 3+ goals

19%

Southampton 1+ goals

76%

Southampton 2+ goals

41%

Southampton 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

53%

Southampton (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Southampton away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.99 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Southampton defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.50

Southampton attack 0.95 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burnley scores more

40%

level

25%

Southampton scores more

36%

Burnley at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Heaton

Burnley · G

7.7

Match Events

23'

Maya Yoshida

50'

Dean Marney

68'

Oriol Romeu

68'

J. Rodriguez← D. Tadić

73'

74'

78'

80'

87'

J. Tarkowski← A. Gray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleySouthampton

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots20

2Corners7

14Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots20

3On Target5

4Off Target7

2Blocked8

2Inside Box15

7Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

292Total Passes405

179Accurate Passes317

61%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2