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Burnley vs Preston — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
10/5/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Burnley61%
×Draw24%
Preston16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.71
Preston
0.74

Burnley creates 131% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 44 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.89
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Burnley
0.48
Preston
1.52

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
84%
Burnley or Preston
76%
Draw or Preston
39%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
34%
Preston wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
82%
Burnley 2+ goals
51%
Burnley 3+ goals
24%
Preston 1+ goals
52%
Preston 2+ goals
17%
Preston 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
79%
Preston (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.48 · 27 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.89 + Preston defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Preston attack 1.00 + Burnley defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Burnley scores more
61%
level
24%
Preston scores more
16%

Burnley at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. EstèveBurnleyBurnley · D
7.7

Match Events

26'
Andrew Hughes
44'
Freddie Woodman
46'
C. Roberts← B. Humphreys
54'
Benjamin Whiteman
66'
Lyle Foster
69'
Josh Brownhill
69'
Alistair McCann
71'
CJ Egan-Riley
73'
Z. Flemming← H. Mejbri
76'
D. Holmes← M. Frøkjær-Jensen
83'
J. Sarmiento← J. Anthony
86'
J. Laurent← J. Cullen
86'
S. Þórðarson← R. Brady
88'
J. Whatmough← A. Hughes
90+5'
R. Ledson← K. Kesler-Hayden

Possession

60%Burnley

Shots

9Burnley

Pass accuracy

54%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyPreston
Overview
60%Possession40%
9Total Shots9
0.48Expected Goals (xG)0.81
2Corners3
10Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots9
1On Target2
4Off Target4
4Blocked3
7Inside Box6
2Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
523Total Passes335
434Accurate Passes235
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.16Goals Prevented0.16
Discipline
10Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Burnley vs Preston

Burnley and Preston drew 0-0 in Championship on October 5, 2024.

Burnley controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.