Burnley 3–0 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

N. Tella 58', 55', 15'

2/11/2023

Championship · Round 31Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Burnley48%

×Draw28%

Preston24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.83

Burnley

1.31

Preston

0.83

Burnley creates 58% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.06

creates per match

1.13

0.53

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Burnley

1.06

Preston

1.13

allows per match

Burnley

0.53

Preston

1.56

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.27scores more

Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

76%

Burnley or Preston

72%

Draw or Preston

52%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

22%

Preston wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

73%

Burnley 2+ goals

38%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Preston 1+ goals

56%

Preston 2+ goals

20%

Preston 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

67%

Preston (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.53 · 6 matches

Preston away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.06 + Preston defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Preston attack 1.13 + Burnley defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burnley scores more

48%

level

28%

Preston scores more

24%

Burnley at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Tella

Burnley · M

8.6

Match Events

15'

N. Tella↳ J. Brownhill

28'

Alistair McCann

46'

B. Whiteman← R. Ledson

46'

T. Parrott← B. Woodburn

55'

57'

57'

58'

61'

68'

68'

Álvaro Fernández← R. Brady

73'

J. Cork← J. Guðmundsson

73'

M. Obafemi← N. Tella

81'

S. Twine← J. Brownhill

81'

C. Taylor← H. Ekdal

90+2'

Liam Lindsay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyPreston

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots5

5Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots5

6On Target2

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

636Total Passes281

528Accurate Passes179

83%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1