Burnley 1–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester City

J. Guðmundsson 82'

Danilo 22'

2/3/2018

Premier League · Round 26Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley22%

×Draw23%

Manchester City55%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.85

Burnley

1.10

Manchester City

1.85

Manchester City creates 68% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

1.00

creates per match

1.84

1.87

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Manchester City

1.84

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Manchester City

1.21

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

45%

Burnley or Manchester City

77%

Draw or Manchester City

78%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

8%

Manchester City wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

67%

Burnley 2+ goals

30%

Burnley 3+ goals

10%

Manchester City 1+ goals

84%

Manchester City 2+ goals

55%

Manchester City 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

29%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Burnley scores more

22%

level

23%

Manchester City scores more

55%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Danilo

Manchester City · D

8.1

Match Events

22'

Danilo↳ Bernardo Silva

38'

Kevin Long

42'

Jack Cork

46'

M. Lowton← P. Bardsley

64'

İlkay Gündoğan

73'

Ben Mee

74'

Brahim Diaz← R. Sterling

82'

J. Guðmundsson↳ M. Lowton

90'

Ashley Barnes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyManchester

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots20

3Corners13

9Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots20

3On Target7

4Off Target6

1Blocked7

6Inside Box10

2Outside Box10

Passing

29%Possession71%

278Total Passes695

178Accurate Passes605

64%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls6

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0