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Burnley vs Manchester City — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Manchester City
Manchester City
11/26/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley22%
×Draw23%
Manchester City55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.10
Manchester City
1.85

Manchester City creates 68% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 36 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.00
Manchester City
1.84

allows per match

Burnley
1.87
Manchester City
1.21

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more
Manchester City-0.23scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Manchester City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
45%
Burnley or Manchester City
77%
Draw or Manchester City
78%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
8%
Manchester City wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
67%
Burnley 2+ goals
30%
Burnley 3+ goals
10%
Manchester City 1+ goals
84%
Manchester City 2+ goals
55%
Manchester City 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
29%
Manchester City (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.21 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Burnley scores more
22%
level
23%
Manchester City scores more
55%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Burnley 1–2 Manchester City

Manchester City beat Burnley 2-1 in Premier League on November 26, 2016.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.