Burnley 2–3 Fulham: Result & Stats | Premier League

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.54

Burnley

1.29

Fulham

1.54

Fulham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 26 away

0.96

creates per match

1.15

1.94

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Fulham

1.15

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Fulham

1.63

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

57%

Burnley or Fulham

75%

Draw or Fulham

68%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

14%

Fulham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Fulham 1+ goals

79%

Fulham 2+ goals

45%

Fulham 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

43%

Fulham (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Fulham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fulham attack 1.15 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burnley scores more

32%

level

25%

Fulham scores more

43%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

E. Smith Rowe↳ H. Wilson

21'

L. Ugochukwu↳ J. Cullen

31'

C. Bassey↳ H. Wilson

37'

Joachim Andersen

58'

H. Wilson↳ S. Chukwueze

62'

Z. Flemming← L. Foster

62'

M. Edwards← Florentino

66'

Josh Cullen

77'

J. Anthony← J. Bruun Larsen

77'

O. Sonne← A. Tuanzebe

79'

S. Lukic← A. Iwobi

79'

J. King← R. Jimenez

82'

Kenny Tete

83'

M. Tresor Ndayishimiye← L. Ugochukwu

86'

O. Sonne

89'

A. Traore← H. Wilson

89'

T. Castagne← E. Smith Rowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyFulham

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots6

2.46Expected Goals (xG)2.23

10Corners4

8Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots6

8On Target4

4Off Target2

4Blocked0

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box0

Passing

53%Possession47%

536Total Passes479

444Accurate Passes393

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

0.70Goals Prevented0.70

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0