Burnley 2–1 Fulham: Result & Stats | Premier League

Burnley

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fulham

D. Odoi 23' (OG)

J. Hendrick 20'

A. Schürrle 2'

1/12/2019

Premier League · Round 22Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley32%

×Draw25%

Fulham43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.55

Burnley

1.30

Fulham

1.55

Fulham creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 28 away

0.96

creates per match

1.16

1.94

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Fulham

1.16

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Fulham

1.64

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

57%

Burnley or Fulham

75%

Draw or Fulham

68%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

14%

Fulham wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

73%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Fulham 1+ goals

79%

Fulham 2+ goals

46%

Fulham 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

43%

Fulham (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Fulham defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fulham attack 1.16 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Burnley scores more

32%

level

25%

Fulham scores more

43%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Hendrick

Burnley · M

7.5

Match Events

2'

A. Schürrle↳ D. Odoi

20'

J. Hendrick↳ D. McNeil

23'

D. OdoiOwn goal

34'

Calum Chambers

46'

L. Vietto← R. Sessegnon

61'

T. Cairney← J. Bryan

65'

Cyrus Christie

72'

James Tarkowski

75'

N. Kebano← A. Schürrle

87'

S. Vokes← C. Wood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyFulham

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots12

2Corners6

5Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots12

1On Target4

5Off Target4

5Blocked4

5Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

419Total Passes564

282Accurate Passes454

67%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

5Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0