Burnley 1–5 Everton: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Everton

B. Gibson 36'

Richarlison 90+3'

L. Digne 71', 13'

G. Sigurðsson 22' (pen)

Y. Mina 2'

12/26/2018

Premier League · Round 19Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley35%

×Draw25%

Everton40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.51

Burnley

1.38

Everton

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

1.15

1.87

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Burnley

1.00

Everton

1.15

allows per match

Burnley

1.87

Everton

1.75

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

60%

Burnley or Everton

75%

Draw or Everton

65%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

16%

Everton wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

75%

Burnley 2+ goals

40%

Burnley 3+ goals

16%

Everton 1+ goals

78%

Everton 2+ goals

44%

Everton 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

46%

Everton (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Everton attack 1.15 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burnley scores more

35%

level

25%

Everton scores more

40%

Everton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

L. Digne

Everton · M

8.6

Match Events

2'

Y. Mina↳ Bernard

13'

L. Digne

22'

G. SigurðssonPenalty

25'

30'

30'

36'

45'

63'

J. Guðmundsson← J. Hendrick

63'

D. McNeil← B. Gibson

67'

Richarlison← D. Calvert-Lewin

71'

L. Digne↳ Bernard

73'

C. Wood← S. Vokes

75'

I. Gueye← André Gomes

80'

T. Davies← Bernard

90'

Richarlison

90'

Idrissa Gueye

90+3'

Richarlison↳ G. Sigurðsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyEverton

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots13

5Corners7

11Fouls19

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target6

6Off Target3

1Blocked4

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

401Total Passes417

273Accurate Passes301

68%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2