Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Burnley vs Everton — Premier League 2026

Burnley
Burnley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Everton
Everton
S. Arfield 90'
S. Vokes 39'
Y. Bolasie 58'
10/22/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Burnley35%
×Draw25%
Everton40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.38
Everton
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 30 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.00
Everton
1.15

allows per match

Burnley
1.87
Everton
1.75

finishing

Burnley+0.10scores more
Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Everton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
60%
Burnley or Everton
75%
Draw or Everton
65%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
16%
Everton wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
75%
Burnley 2+ goals
40%
Burnley 3+ goals
16%
Everton 1+ goals
78%
Everton 2+ goals
44%
Everton 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
46%
Everton (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 21 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.75 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.00 + Everton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Everton attack 1.15 + Burnley defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Burnley scores more
35%
level
25%
Everton scores more
40%

Everton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Everton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. KeaneBurnleyBurnley · D
8.3

Match Events

18'
Scott Arfield
26'
Idrissa Gueye
35'
Jeff Hendrick
39'
S. Vokes
45'
Séamus Coleman
58'
Y. Bolasie↳ R. Lukaku
74'
J. Tarkowski← M. Kightly
76'
Deulofeu← K. Mirallas
83'
J. Flanagan← S. Ward
83'
T. Cleverley← I. Gueye
89'
P. Bamford← S. Vokes
90'
Gareth Barry
90+1'
E. Valencia← P. Jagielka
90'
S. Arfield

Possession

34%Burnley

Shots

10Burnley

Pass accuracy

45%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyEverton
Overview
34%Possession66%
10Total Shots21
2Corners8
16Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots21
3On Target8
4Off Target3
3Blocked10
4Inside Box9
6Outside Box12
Passing
34%Possession66%
294Total Passes557
197Accurate Passes452
67%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
7Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Burnley vs Everton

Burnley beat Everton 2-1 in Premier League on October 22, 2016.

Goals: S. Vokes (39'), Y. Bolasie (58'), S. Arfield (90').

Everton controlled possession (66%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.