Burnley 2–0 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Burnley

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coventry

C. Egan-Riley 80'

J. Sarmiento 47'

11/26/2024

Championship · Round 17Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Burnley41%

×Draw28%

Coventry31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.08

Burnley

1.28

Coventry

1.08

Burnley creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 53 away

1.32

creates per match

1.49

0.68

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Burnley

1.32

Coventry

1.49

allows per match

Burnley

0.68

Coventry

1.24

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Burnley+0.29scores more

Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

69%

Burnley or Coventry

72%

Draw or Coventry

59%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

18%

Coventry wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

66%

Coventry 2+ goals

29%

Coventry 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

57%

Coventry (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 18 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.32 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Coventry attack 1.49 + Burnley defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Burnley scores more

41%

level

28%

Coventry scores more

31%

Burnley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

C. Egan-Riley

Burnley · D

8.0

Match Events

29'

Norman Bassette

47'

J. Sarmiento↳ C. Roberts

63'

E. Mason-Clark← N. Bassette

63'

J. Rudoni← J. Dasilva

63'

E. Simms← V. Torp

68'

L. Koleosho← J. Sarmiento

79'

B. Humphreys← Lucas Pires

79'

A. Hountondji← J. Rodríguez

79'

H. Massengo← H. Mejbri

80'

C. Egan-Riley

85'

J. Bidwell← L. Binks

85'

B. Thomas-Asante← B. Sheaf

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyCoventry

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots3

0.97Expected Goals (xG)0.11

6Corners2

10Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots3

3On Target1

3Off Target2

6Blocked0

7Inside Box1

5Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

550Total Passes498

458Accurate Passes409

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-1.17Goals Prevented-1.17

Discipline

10Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5