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Burnley vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
J. Beyer 82'
1/14/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Burnley41%
×Draw28%
Coventry31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.28
Coventry
1.08

Burnley creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 53 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.32
Coventry
1.49

allows per match

Burnley
0.68
Coventry
1.24

finishing

Burnley+0.29scores more
Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
69%
Burnley or Coventry
72%
Draw or Coventry
59%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
18%
Coventry wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
72%
Burnley 2+ goals
37%
Burnley 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
66%
Coventry 2+ goals
29%
Coventry 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
57%
Coventry (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 18 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.32 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Coventry attack 1.49 + Burnley defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Burnley scores more
41%
level
28%
Coventry scores more
31%

Burnley at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36
J. BeyerBurnleyBurnley · D
8.2

Match Events

11'
Jack Cork
46'
J. Guðmunds­son← J. Cork
50'
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
59'
Charlie Taylor
60'
N. Tella← B. Manuel
61'
A. Barnes← J. Rodríguez
79'
Fankaty Dabo
81'
Nathan Tella
81'
Ben Wilson
82'
J. Beyer↳ J. Guðmunds­son
90'
S. Bastien← A. Zaroury
90'
J. Burroughs← B. Norton-Cuffy

Possession

65%Burnley

Shots

10Burnley

Pass accuracy

54%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyCoventry
Overview
65%Possession35%
10Total Shots8
3Corners5
4Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots8
5On Target0
4Off Target5
1Blocked3
6Inside Box6
4Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
607Total Passes327
535Accurate Passes245
88%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
4Fouls8
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Burnley vs Coventry

Burnley beat Coventry 1-0 in Championship on January 14, 2023.

Goals: J. Beyer (82').

Burnley controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.