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Burnley vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
Preview
15:00
Cardiff
Cardiff
1/30/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29Turf Moor
Big match
73%
Burnley
model favours
73%18%9%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Burnley73%
×Draw18%
Cardiff9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
2.06
Cardiff
0.54

Burnley creates 281% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Burnley
2.20
Cardiff
0.78

allows per match

Burnley
0.30
Cardiff
1.91

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
91%
Burnley or Cardiff
82%
Draw or Cardiff
27%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
47%
Cardiff wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
87%
Burnley 2+ goals
61%
Burnley 3+ goals
34%
Cardiff 1+ goals
42%
Cardiff 2+ goals
10%
Cardiff 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
89%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 2.20 + Cardiff defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.06

Cardiff attack 0.78 + Burnley defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Burnley scores more
73%
level
18%
Cardiff scores more
9%

Burnley at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley have won 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Burnley
LDLDL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Burnley vs Cardiff — Match Preview

Burnley face Cardiff on January 30, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Burnley host Cardiff at Turf Moor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.