Burnley 2–0 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Burnley

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cardiff

C. Wood 90+2', 31'

4/13/2019

Premier League · Round 34Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Burnley44%

×Draw28%

Cardiff29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.01

Burnley

1.32

Cardiff

1.01

Burnley creates 31% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 19 away

1.01

creates per match

0.68

1.33

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Burnley

1.01

Cardiff

0.68

allows per match

Burnley

1.33

Cardiff

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burnley+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

71%

Burnley or Cardiff

72%

Draw or Cardiff

56%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

20%

Cardiff wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

73%

Burnley 2+ goals

38%

Burnley 3+ goals

15%

Cardiff 1+ goals

64%

Cardiff 2+ goals

27%

Cardiff 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

60%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.33 · 156 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.01 + Cardiff defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cardiff attack 0.68 + Burnley defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Burnley scores more

44%

level

28%

Cardiff scores more

29%

Burnley at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Wood

Burnley · F

9.1

Match Events

31'

42'

45'

45'

50'

50'

73'

N. Mendez-Laing← J. Hoilett

78'

O. Niasse← K. Zohorè

81'

B. Reid← H. Arter

82'

Víctor Camarasa

90+2'

C. Wood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyCardiff

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots14

8Corners4

7Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots14

7On Target2

6Off Target7

1Blocked5

11Inside Box3

3Outside Box11

Passing

46%Possession54%

280Total Passes349

173Accurate Passes232

62%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

7Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0