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Bürmoos vs Bergheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bürmoos
Bürmoos
FT
4 – 1
Bergheim
Bergheim
5/14/2022Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 22Kunstrasenplatz Bürmoos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bürmoos65%
×Draw18%
Bergheim17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bürmoos
2.49
Bergheim
1.21

Bürmoos creates 106% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 37 away

creates per match

Bürmoos
2.22
Bergheim
1.57

allows per match

Bürmoos
0.84
Bergheim
2.76

finishing

Bürmoos+0.00on par
Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bürmoos ↓

Bergheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bürmoos or draw
83%
Bürmoos or Bergheim
82%
Draw or Bergheim
35%

Winning margin

Bürmoos wins by 2+
43%
Bergheim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bürmoos 1+ goals
92%
Bürmoos 2+ goals
71%
Bürmoos 3+ goals
45%
Bergheim 1+ goals
70%
Bergheim 2+ goals
34%
Bergheim 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bürmoos (draw refunded)
79%
Bergheim (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bürmoos at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.84 · 82 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bürmoos attack 2.22 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.49

Bergheim attack 1.57 + Bürmoos defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bürmoos scores more
65%
level
18%
Bergheim scores more
17%

Bürmoos at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bürmoos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bürmoos vs Bergheim

Bürmoos beat Bergheim 4-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Bürmoos in Bürmoos.