Bergheim 1–0 Bürmoos: Result & Stats

Bergheim

FT

1 – 0

Bürmoos

3/24/2023

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 15Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bergheim32%

×Draw21%

Bürmoos47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BergheimExpected goals in this matchBürmoos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.09

Bergheim

1.69

Bürmoos

2.09

Bürmoos creates 24% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 84 away

1.73

creates per match

1.76

2.42

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Bergheim

1.73

Bürmoos

1.76

allows per match

Bergheim

2.42

Bürmoos

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bergheim+0.00on par

Bürmoos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim ↓

Bürmoos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Bergheim or draw

53%

Bergheim or Bürmoos

79%

Draw or Bürmoos

68%

Winning margin

Bergheim wins by 2+

15%

Bürmoos wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Bergheim 1+ goals

82%

Bergheim 2+ goals

50%

Bergheim 3+ goals

24%

Bürmoos 1+ goals

88%

Bürmoos 2+ goals

62%

Bürmoos 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Bergheim (draw refunded)

40%

Bürmoos (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.42 · 40 matches

Bürmoos away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim attack 1.73 + Bürmoos defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bürmoos attack 1.76 + Bergheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bergheim scores more

32%

level

21%

Bürmoos scores more

47%

Bürmoos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bürmoos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff