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Burkina Faso vs Angola — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Angola
Angola
6/10/2017Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade du 4 Août (Ouagadougou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Burkina Faso53%
×Draw27%
Angola20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burkina Faso
1.44
Angola
0.78

Burkina Faso creates 85% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Burkina Faso
1.67
Angola
0.89

allows per match

Burkina Faso
0.67
Angola
1.22

finishing

Burkina Faso+0.00on par
Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burkina Faso ↓

Angola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Burkina Faso or draw
80%
Burkina Faso or Angola
73%
Draw or Angola
47%

Winning margin

Burkina Faso wins by 2+
26%
Angola wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Burkina Faso 1+ goals
76%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
42%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
18%
Angola 1+ goals
54%
Angola 2+ goals
18%
Angola 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
72%
Angola (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burkina Faso at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Angola away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burkina Faso attack 1.67 + Angola defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Angola attack 0.89 + Burkina Faso defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Burkina Faso scores more
53%
level
27%
Angola scores more
20%

Burkina Faso at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Burkina Faso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Burkina Faso 3–1 Angola

Burkina Faso beat Angola 3-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on June 10, 2017.

The match was played at Stade du 4 Août (Ouagadougou).