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Angola vs Burkina Faso — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Angola
Angola
FT
2 – 1
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso
11/18/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 6Estádio 11 de Novembro (Luanda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Angola56%
×Draw27%
Burkina Faso17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angola
1.43
Burkina Faso
0.64

Angola creates 123% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Angola
1.63
Burkina Faso
0.77

allows per match

Angola
0.50
Burkina Faso
1.23

finishing

Angola+0.00on par
Burkina Faso+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angola ↓

Burkina Faso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Angola or draw
83%
Angola or Burkina Faso
73%
Draw or Burkina Faso
44%

Winning margin

Angola wins by 2+
29%
Burkina Faso wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Angola 1+ goals
76%
Angola 2+ goals
42%
Angola 3+ goals
17%
Burkina Faso 1+ goals
47%
Burkina Faso 2+ goals
14%
Burkina Faso 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Angola (draw refunded)
77%
Burkina Faso (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angola at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Burkina Faso away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angola attack 1.63 + Burkina Faso defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Burkina Faso attack 0.77 + Angola defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Angola scores more
56%
level
27%
Burkina Faso scores more
17%

Angola at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Angola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Angola vs Burkina Faso

Angola beat Burkina Faso 2-1 in Africa Cup of Nations on November 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro (Luanda).