Buriram United 1–3 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Buriram United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Beijing Guoan

4/9/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Buriram United51%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buriram UnitedExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.10

Buriram United

1.70

Beijing Guoan

1.10

Buriram United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Buriram United

1.40

Beijing Guoan

1.00

allows per match

Buriram United

1.20

Beijing Guoan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buriram United+0.00on par

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buriram United ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Buriram United or draw

75%

Buriram United or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

49%

Winning margin

Buriram United wins by 2+

28%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Buriram United 1+ goals

82%

Buriram United 2+ goals

51%

Buriram United 3+ goals

24%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

67%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

30%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Buriram United (draw refunded)

68%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buriram United at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buriram United attack 1.40 + Beijing Guoan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 + Buriram United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Buriram United scores more

51%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

25%

Buriram United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff