Beijing Guoan 2–0 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buriram United

4/24/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Beijing Guoan41%

×Draw26%

Buriram United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.19

Beijing Guoan

1.38

Buriram United

1.19

Beijing Guoan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

1.20

creates per match

0.68

1.70

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

1.20

Buriram United

0.68

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.70

Buriram United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

68%

Beijing Guoan or Buriram United

74%

Draw or Buriram United

59%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

19%

Buriram United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

75%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

40%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

16%

Buriram United 1+ goals

70%

Buriram United 2+ goals

33%

Buriram United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

56%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Buriram United away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 1.20 + Buriram United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Buriram United attack 0.68 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

41%

level

26%

Buriram United scores more

32%

Beijing Guoan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff