Burgos Promesas 1–0 Becerril Campos: Result & Stats

Burgos Promesas

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Becerril Campos

10/14/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Burgos Promesas51%

×Draw26%

Becerril Campos23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burgos PromesasExpected goals in this matchBecerril Campos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.93

Burgos Promesas

1.52

Becerril Campos

0.93

Burgos Promesas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 97 away

1.45

creates per match

1.02

0.83

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Burgos Promesas

1.45

Becerril Campos

1.02

allows per match

Burgos Promesas

0.83

Becerril Campos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Becerril Campos →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw

77%

Burgos Promesas or Becerril Campos

74%

Draw or Becerril Campos

49%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

26%

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

78%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

45%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

20%

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

61%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

24%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

69%

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more

51%

level

26%

Becerril Campos scores more

23%

Burgos Promesas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Becerril Campos

Burgos Promesas beat Becerril Campos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.

Burgos Promesas vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Becerril Campos