Becerril Campos 3–1 Burgos Promesas: Result & Stats

Becerril Campos

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Burgos Promesas

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Becerril Campos32%

×Draw29%

Burgos Promesas38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Becerril CamposExpected goals in this matchBurgos Promesas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.14

Becerril Campos

1.02

Burgos Promesas

1.14

Burgos Promesas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 63 away

1.11

creates per match

1.02

1.26

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Becerril Campos

1.11

Burgos Promesas

1.02

allows per match

Becerril Campos

1.26

Burgos Promesas

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Burgos Promesas →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw

62%

Becerril Campos or Burgos Promesas

71%

Draw or Burgos Promesas

68%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

12%

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

64%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

27%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

68%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

32%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

46%

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Becerril Campos scores more

32%

level

29%

Burgos Promesas scores more

38%

Burgos Promesas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Becerril Campos vs Burgos Promesas

Becerril Campos beat Burgos Promesas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.

Becerril Campos vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Becerril Campos vs Burgos Promesas