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Bupolsa vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bupolsa
Bupolsa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Nuevo Campo San Amaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bupolsa31%
×Draw31%
Atlético Tordesillas38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bupolsa
0.94
Atlético Tordesillas
1.06

Atlético Tordesillas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bupolsa
0.80
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Bupolsa
1.00
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Bupolsa+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bupolsa ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bupolsa or draw
62%
Bupolsa or Atlético Tordesillas
69%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
69%

Winning margin

Bupolsa wins by 2+
11%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bupolsa 1+ goals
61%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
24%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
7%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
65%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bupolsa (draw refunded)
45%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bupolsa at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bupolsa attack 0.80 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.94

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Bupolsa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bupolsa scores more
31%
level
31%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
38%

Atlético Tordesillas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bupolsa 1 – 2 Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Bupolsa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Nuevo Campo San Amaro in Burgos.