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Atlético Tordesillas vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bupolsa
Bupolsa
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas52%
×Draw28%
Bupolsa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.38
Bupolsa
0.75

Atlético Tordesillas creates 84% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Bupolsa
0.81

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Bupolsa
1.35

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Bupolsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
80%
Atlético Tordesillas or Bupolsa
72%
Draw or Bupolsa
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
25%
Bupolsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
16%
Bupolsa 1+ goals
53%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
17%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
72%
Bupolsa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
52%
level
28%
Bupolsa scores more
20%

Atlético Tordesillas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tordesillas 2 – 0 Bupolsa

Atlético Tordesillas beat Bupolsa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.