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Bulls Academy vs Blacktown Spartans — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
M. Wells 73'
A. Chance 57', 43'
6/5/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 18Sydney United Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Bulls Academy49%
×Draw22%
Blacktown Spartans29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
1.95
Blacktown Spartans
1.45

Bulls Academy creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 73 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.23
Blacktown Spartans
1.45

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.45
Blacktown Spartans
1.67

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Blacktown Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
71%
Bulls Academy or Blacktown Spartans
78%
Draw or Blacktown Spartans
51%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
28%
Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
86%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
58%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
31%
Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
77%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
42%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
63%
Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Blacktown Spartans away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.23 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.95

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.45 + Bulls Academy defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
49%
level
22%
Blacktown Spartans scores more
29%

Bulls Academy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
A. Chance
57'
A. Chance
73'
M. Wells

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bulls Academy vs Blacktown Spartans

Blacktown Spartans beat Bulls Academy 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 5, 2024.

Goals: A. Chance (43', 57'), M. Wells (73').

The match was played at Sydney United Sports Center in Sydney.