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Blacktown Spartans vs Bulls Academy — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
FT
2 – 3
Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
2/28/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3Blacktown Football Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Blacktown Spartans40%
×Draw23%
Bulls Academy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown Spartans
1.72
Bulls Academy
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.95
Bulls Academy
1.70

allows per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.55
Bulls Academy
1.49

finishing

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par
Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown Spartans ↓

Bulls Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Blacktown Spartans or draw
63%
Blacktown Spartans or Bulls Academy
77%
Draw or Bulls Academy
60%

Winning margin

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
21%
Bulls Academy wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
82%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
51%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
25%
Bulls Academy 1+ goals
80%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
48%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
52%
Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown Spartans at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Bulls Academy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.95 + Bulls Academy defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bulls Academy attack 1.70 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blacktown Spartans scores more
40%
level
23%
Bulls Academy scores more
37%

Blacktown Spartans at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Blacktown Spartans 2–3 Bulls Academy

Bulls Academy beat Blacktown Spartans 3-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Blacktown Football Park 1 in Sydney.