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Bulls Academy vs Bankstown City Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
7/18/2026New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Bulls Academy45%
×Draw23%
Bankstown City Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulls Academy
1.84
Bankstown City Lions
1.54

Bulls Academy creates 19% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 58 away

creates per match

Bulls Academy
2.17
Bankstown City Lions
1.55

allows per match

Bulls Academy
1.54
Bankstown City Lions
1.52

finishing

Bulls Academy+0.00on par
Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulls Academy ↓

Bankstown City Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bulls Academy or draw
67%
Bulls Academy or Bankstown City Lions
77%
Draw or Bankstown City Lions
55%

Winning margin

Bulls Academy wins by 2+
24%
Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bulls Academy 1+ goals
84%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
55%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
28%
Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
79%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
45%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
58%
Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulls Academy at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.54 · 41 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulls Academy attack 2.17 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.55 + Bulls Academy defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bulls Academy scores more
45%
level
23%
Bankstown City Lions scores more
33%

Bulls Academy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bulls Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bulls Academy 0–5 Bankstown City Lions

Bankstown City Lions beat Bulls Academy 5-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 18, 2026.