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Bankstown City Lions vs Bulls Academy — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bulls Academy
Bulls Academy
J. Grozdanovski 30'
F. Madden 90+1'
D. Bosnjak 65'
6/22/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 21Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bankstown City Lions39%
×Draw24%
Bulls Academy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bankstown City Lions
1.54
Bulls Academy
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 43 away

creates per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.60
Bulls Academy
1.70

allows per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.25
Bulls Academy
1.49

finishing

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par
Bulls Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankstown City Lions ↓

Bulls Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bankstown City Lions or draw
63%
Bankstown City Lions or Bulls Academy
76%
Draw or Bulls Academy
61%

Winning margin

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
19%
Bulls Academy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
79%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
45%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
20%
Bulls Academy 1+ goals
77%
Bulls Academy 2+ goals
43%
Bulls Academy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
52%
Bulls Academy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankstown City Lions at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Bulls Academy away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.49 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.60 + Bulls Academy defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bulls Academy attack 1.70 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bankstown City Lions scores more
39%
level
24%
Bulls Academy scores more
37%

Bankstown City Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bankstown City Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
J. Grozdanovski
65'
D. Bosnjak
90+1'
F. Madden

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bankstown City Lions 1–2 Bulls Academy

Bulls Academy beat Bankstown City Lions 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 22, 2024.

Goals: J. Grozdanovski (30'), D. Bosnjak (65'), F. Madden (90+1').

The match was played at Jensen Park in Sydney.