Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bullense vs Olímpico Totana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bullense
Bullense
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Olímpico Totana
Olímpico Totana
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bullense38%
×Draw28%
Olímpico Totana35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bullense
1.23
Olímpico Totana
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bullense
1.18
Olímpico Totana
0.98

allows per match

Bullense
1.35
Olímpico Totana
1.28

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par
Olímpico Totana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

Olímpico Totana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bullense or draw
65%
Bullense or Olímpico Totana
72%
Draw or Olímpico Totana
62%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+
16%
Olímpico Totana wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals
71%
Bullense 2+ goals
35%
Bullense 3+ goals
13%
Olímpico Totana 1+ goals
69%
Olímpico Totana 2+ goals
33%
Olímpico Totana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)
52%
Olímpico Totana (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Olímpico Totana away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + Olímpico Totana defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Olímpico Totana attack 0.98 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bullense scores more
38%
level
28%
Olímpico Totana scores more
35%

Bullense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bullense vs Olímpico Totana

Olímpico Totana beat Bullense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.