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Bullense vs Balsicas Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bullense
Bullense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bullense45%
×Draw27%
Balsicas Atlético29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bullense
1.42
Balsicas Atlético
1.08

Bullense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bullense
1.18
Balsicas Atlético
0.82

allows per match

Bullense
1.35
Balsicas Atlético
1.65

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par
Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

Balsicas Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bullense or draw
71%
Bullense or Balsicas Atlético
73%
Draw or Balsicas Atlético
55%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+
22%
Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals
76%
Bullense 2+ goals
41%
Bullense 3+ goals
17%
Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
66%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
29%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)
61%
Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Balsicas Atlético away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Balsicas Atlético attack 0.82 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bullense scores more
45%
level
27%
Balsicas Atlético scores more
29%

Bullense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bullense 0–2 Balsicas Atlético

Balsicas Atlético beat Bullense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.