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Balsicas Atlético vs Bullense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Bullense
Bullense
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 23Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético52%
×Draw24%
Bullense24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.74
Bullense
1.09

Balsicas Atlético creates 60% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 79 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Bullense
0.78

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Bullense
2.13

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Bullense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
76%
Balsicas Atlético or Bullense
76%
Draw or Bullense
48%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
29%
Bullense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
82%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
52%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
25%
Bullense 1+ goals
66%
Bullense 2+ goals
30%
Bullense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
69%
Bullense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.74

Bullense attack 0.78 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
52%
level
24%
Bullense scores more
24%

Balsicas Atlético at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balsicas Atlético vs Bullense

Bullense beat Balsicas Atlético 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas in Torre-Pacheco.