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Bullense vs Algar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bullense
Bullense
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Algar
Algar
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bullense50%
×Draw25%
Algar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bullense
1.56
Algar
1.00

Bullense creates 56% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bullense
1.18
Algar
0.65

allows per match

Bullense
1.35
Algar
1.94

finishing

Bullense+0.00on par
Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bullense ↓

Algar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bullense or draw
76%
Bullense or Algar
75%
Draw or Algar
50%

Winning margin

Bullense wins by 2+
26%
Algar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bullense 1+ goals
79%
Bullense 2+ goals
46%
Bullense 3+ goals
21%
Algar 1+ goals
63%
Algar 2+ goals
26%
Algar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bullense (draw refunded)
67%
Algar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bullense at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.35 · 79 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bullense attack 1.18 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.56

Algar attack 0.65 + Bullense defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bullense scores more
50%
level
25%
Algar scores more
24%

Bullense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bullense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bullense vs Algar

Bullense beat Algar 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Nicolás de las Peñas in Bullas.