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Algar vs Bullense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Algar
Algar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bullense
Bullense
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Estadio Sánchez Luengo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Algar45%
×Draw24%
Bullense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algar
1.65
Bullense
1.33

Algar creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 79 away

creates per match

Algar
1.18
Bullense
0.78

allows per match

Algar
1.88
Bullense
2.13

finishing

Algar+0.00on par
Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algar ↓

Bullense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Algar or draw
69%
Algar or Bullense
76%
Draw or Bullense
55%

Winning margin

Algar wins by 2+
23%
Bullense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Algar 1+ goals
81%
Algar 2+ goals
49%
Algar 3+ goals
23%
Bullense 1+ goals
74%
Bullense 2+ goals
38%
Bullense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Algar (draw refunded)
59%
Bullense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algar at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algar attack 1.18 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bullense attack 0.78 + Algar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Algar scores more
45%
level
24%
Bullense scores more
31%

Algar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Algar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algar vs Bullense

Bullense beat Algar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Sánchez Luengo in El Algar.