Bulle 3–0 Azzurri 90: Result & Stats

Bulle

FT

3 – 0

Azzurri 90

8/15/2020

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stade de Bouleyres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bulle71%

×Draw17%

Azzurri 9012%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BulleExpected goals in this matchAzzurri 90

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.88

Bulle

2.40

Azzurri 90

0.88

Bulle creates 173% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

2.44

creates per match

0.64

1.11

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Bulle

2.44

Azzurri 90

0.64

allows per match

Bulle

1.11

Azzurri 90

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bulle+0.00on par

Azzurri 90+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulle ↓

Azzurri 90 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bulle or draw

88%

Bulle or Azzurri 90

83%

Draw or Azzurri 90

29%

Winning margin

Bulle wins by 2+

48%

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bulle 1+ goals

91%

Bulle 2+ goals

69%

Bulle 3+ goals

42%

Azzurri 90 1+ goals

59%

Azzurri 90 2+ goals

22%

Azzurri 90 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bulle (draw refunded)

85%

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulle at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Azzurri 90 away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulle attack 2.44 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.40

Azzurri 90 attack 0.64 + Bulle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bulle scores more

71%

level

17%

Azzurri 90 scores more

12%

Bulle at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff