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Azzurri 90 vs Bulle — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Azzurri 90
Azzurri 90
CANC
16:00
Bulle
Bulle
11/21/20201. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Centre sportif de Chavannes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Azzurri 9017%
×Draw18%
Bulle65%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azzurri 90
1.16
Bulle
2.41

Bulle creates 108% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Azzurri 90
1.08
Bulle
2.50

allows per match

Azzurri 90
2.31
Bulle
1.23

finishing

Azzurri 90+0.00on par
Bulle+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azzurri 90 ↓

Bulle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Azzurri 90 or draw
35%
Azzurri 90 or Bulle
82%
Draw or Bulle
83%

Winning margin

Azzurri 90 wins by 2+
6%
Bulle wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Azzurri 90 1+ goals
69%
Azzurri 90 2+ goals
32%
Azzurri 90 3+ goals
11%
Bulle 1+ goals
91%
Bulle 2+ goals
69%
Bulle 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Azzurri 90 (draw refunded)
21%
Bulle (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azzurri 90 at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Bulle away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azzurri 90 attack 1.08 + Bulle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bulle attack 2.50 + Azzurri 90 defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Azzurri 90 scores more
17%
level
18%
Bulle scores more
65%

Bulle at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bulle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azzurri 90 vs Bulle — Match Preview

Azzurri 90 face Bulle on November 21, 2020 in this 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Azzurri 90 host Bulle at Centre sportif de Chavannes.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.