Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bulgaria vs Luxembourg — UEFA Nations League 2018

Bulgaria
Bulgaria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
10/12/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 3Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bulgaria33%
×Draw28%
Luxembourg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bulgaria
1.13
Luxembourg
1.27

Luxembourg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bulgaria
1.33
Luxembourg
1.38

allows per match

Bulgaria
1.17
Luxembourg
0.92

finishing

Bulgaria+0.00on par
Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bulgaria ↓

Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bulgaria or draw
60%
Bulgaria or Luxembourg
72%
Draw or Luxembourg
67%

Winning margin

Bulgaria wins by 2+
13%
Luxembourg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bulgaria 1+ goals
68%
Bulgaria 2+ goals
31%
Bulgaria 3+ goals
11%
Luxembourg 1+ goals
72%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
36%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bulgaria (draw refunded)
45%
Luxembourg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bulgaria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Luxembourg away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bulgaria attack 1.33 + Luxembourg defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Luxembourg attack 1.38 + Bulgaria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bulgaria scores more
33%
level
28%
Luxembourg scores more
40%

Luxembourg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Nations League: Bulgaria 0–0 Luxembourg

Bulgaria and Luxembourg drew 0-0 in UEFA Nations League on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.